The upstart Blues are about to be tested.

The Blues are 4-2-0 in their last 6 games, scoring 4.5 goals per game and allowing 2.7 goals per game. For a team that not long ago had only scored 1 goal each in 4 of 5 games, that's pretty damn encouraging.

However...

The Blues have not played much less beaten any top teams over that span. For a team with playoff aspirations you need to be able to play well against the good teams instead of just rely on a weak schedule to pick up points. Here are the 6 opponents the Blues have played during this 4-2-0 stretch:

17-18-4 Detroit, who fired their coach after losing to the Blues
13-20-7 Nashville, who have been one of the NHL's most pathetic, I mean disappointing, teams this season
14-19-4 Buffalo, who lost 13 straight
13-25-2 Chicago
19-17-2 Ottawa
17-17-6 Columbus

A couple of decent teams in there, but no serious playoff contenders. That is about to change, as the Minnesota Wild present a good challenge for the Blues that will put a lot of these recent trends and performances to the test.

The Wild overall sit 25-11-4, good for 2nd in the Central division. For the season, they are averaging 2.9 goals per game and allowing 2.6 goals per game. They are 18th in % of scoring chances for at 49.67%, and 11th in % of high danger chances for at 52%.

Looking at some more recent trends, the Wild are kind of a mixed bag. Over their last 15 games, the Wild are 6-9-0 for a points percentage of .400 which ranks 22nd in the NHL. Minnesota has been better in a smaller, more recent sample size, however. Much like the Blues, they are also 4-2-0 in their last 6 and rank high in goals for and against. The Wild over their last 6 games:

9th in goals for per game (3.3)
5th in goals against (2.3)
21st in % scoring chances for at 5v5 (49%)
15th in % high danger chances for at 5v5 (51%)

It's worth mentioning that while the Wild are 9th and 4th in goals for/against, they are 22nd and 20th, respectively, in expected goals for and against. So which one is this team?

We're about to find out.

The Blues have ranked in the top third of the NHL in nearly all advanced metrics over their last 10ish games, here are the same numbers for the Blues during their 4-2-0 stretch:

1st in goals for (4.5)
11th in goals against (2.7)
12th in expected goals for (3.4)
1st in expected goals against (2.2)
7th in % scoring chances for at 5v5 (54%)
10th in % high danger chances for at 5v5 (53%)

The numbers are staggering considering where this team was in the first part of the season before Montgomery was brought in, but it is a small sample size yet -- and against subpar competition as previously mentioned.

The Wild will be a good measuring stick for the young Blues, a way to see if they are truly progressing in a meaningful way or if it's just a little winning streak. The Blues have been one of the better teams in the league over their last 10 games in limiting opponents scoring chances -- scoring chances against: 5th in the NHL at 5v5 and 1st in the NHL at all strengths -- a big reason they're the top team in expected goals against.

The Wild, meanwhile, haven't been great at generating scoring chances for. In their last 10 games they're 21st in the NHL in scoring chances for at 5v5, and 26th over their last 15. They have been trending up though, as they are 11th in scoring chances for at 5v5 in their last 6.

This should be a playoff-type game, low-scoring and tight-checking. The Wild have owned the Blues as of late, which has not been the case in the past. The Wild are 4-7-0 against the Blues over the last 11 games dating back to the start of the 2022-2023 season, averaging scoring 3.6 goals per game and allowing 2.8 goals per game. Before then, the Blues were 13-3-2 against them in the 4 seasons prior. The Wild have flipped the rivalry, and it's time for the Blues to punch back.